Beyond Survival: Financial Planning and Forecasting in times of change.

Kevin Phillips explores how periods of extreme uncertainty can be the perfect breeding ground for innovation, and how businesses can position themselves to capitalise on disruption rather than merely survive it.

Identify opportunities through uncertainty.

Three months into 2025 and it feels like we've lived through a decade of change. Geopolitical upheaval continues, heating up and cooling off in the blink of an eye. Global diplomacy has been irrevocably shaken, with traditional allies turning on each other and the Trump-led US demonstrating it can’t be trusted to follow established protocol or keep its word. The on-again, off-again US tariff war breeds persistent uncertainty across global markets. The latest chapter in mid-March has seen the pendulum swing yet again, with unintended consequences and own goals the order of the day.

All of this creates unprecedented uncertainty and chaos. But here's the counterintuitive truth: some of humanity's most transformative innovations emerge precisely during our most chaotic periods. Without a doubt opportunities exist amid today's uncertainty. The question is whether your business is positioned to identify and capitalise on them.

Opportunity amid the tornado

Throughout history, periods of extreme upheaval have consistently created some of our most revolutionary innovations and business models.

Hewlett-Packard was founded in a garage during the depths of the Great Depression, setting the stage for what would become Silicon Valley. The jet engine, developed during WWII, planted the seeds for commercial aviation, revolutionising global commerce in the post-war chaos. More recently, the 2008 financial crisis gave birth to the sharing economy, with Airbnb and Uber emerging as people sought alternative income sources by monetising underutilised assets.

The pattern is clear: disruption, as unsettling and unpleasant as it is, breeds innovation.

Seeing opportunities where others see threats

What separates companies that thrive during chaos from those that merely survive? Often, it comes down to a fundamental shift in perception.

While most organisations enter defensive mode during disruption, cutting spending and focusing exclusively on mitigating threats, the most successful develop what we might call "anticipatory capabilities". This is the ability to sense weak signals of emerging opportunities before they become obvious to everyone. These companies stop asking "what are we losing?" and start asking "what possibilities are opening up?"

When speed outweighs perfection

In less interesting times, businesses have the luxury of reviewing comprehensive data before making decisions. Accuracy is never sacrificed for speed. But in today's rapidly shifting landscape, this equation has to change.

Take the businesses that quickly pivoted during the pandemic versus those that waited for clarity. Those who moved quickly with "good enough" information often gained lasting advantages over competitors who waited for perfect information that never arrived.

The challenge for financial teams is to build confidence in rapid decision-making through transparency and real-time insights. Traditional quarterly reviews and annual budgeting cycles simply can't provide the agility companies need when opportunities emerge and vanish within weeks, not years.

From theory to practice: seizing today's opportunities

What does this opportunity-seeking approach look like in practice? Let’s look at the automotive sector, which we can thank for explaining to the world how tariffs work, and that the hardest hit is often the average consumer in the country imposing the tariffs. As US steel tariffs potentially drive new car prices up by 25%, vehicles will likely remain on the road longer and the second-hand market will thrive.

Forward-thinking auto businesses should position themselves to service and repair this growing market of ageing vehicles, from specialist parts suppliers to advanced diagnostic services for older models.

This applies to national economies at large as well. While arguably the UK and Europe dropped the ball by relying so heavily on the US for defence, the UK has quickly recovered. Its recent £1.6 billion investment in defence has not gone to the US (another unintended consequence of Trump’s isolation tendencies. Could he, in fact, be making Europe great again?). Instead, it’s gone straight into the UK and European economy, creating 200 new jobs in Northern Ireland at Thales, which is majority-owned by the French government and a French-listed company.

Tools for navigating the opportunity landscape

Seizing these opportunities requires adjusting some traditional thinking around financial planning. Forecasts enable continuous reassessments and driver-based planning focuses on key indicators that signal emerging opportunities rather than just tracking historical performance. Continuous scenario modelling maps potential opportunities, not just risks.

These are practical tools that allow businesses to maintain enough structure for coherent decision-making during times of change. And they also build in the flexibility needed to respond when opportunities emerge unexpectedly, or in unexpected places.

The collective opportunity radar

Perhaps most importantly, identifying opportunities shouldn’t be siloed within the executive suite, finance department, or strategic planning department. This means actively seeking input from all levels of the organisation – especially from staff at the coalface who interact directly with customers, suppliers, and the wider market.

These team members often see the first signals of market shifts long before they appear in financial reports. They can only contribute meaningfully if they have visibility into how their observations connect to the broader business, and if they can give their input in a way that is accessible and easy. (Hint: this is unlikely to be via a spreadsheet!)

Navigating by starlight when the map is burning

For accountants, today’s business environment demands an evolution in our role. We must move beyond being scorekeepers focused on historical accuracy to become strategic partners in identifying and evaluating opportunities. This requires developing new skills in scenario planning, real-time analysis, and cross-functional communication.

The businesses that will thrive in the coming years aren't those with the most accurate predictions. They're the ones with the financial agility and transparency to spot emerging opportunities quickly, evaluate them effectively, and pivot decisively when the moment is right.

In today's world of continuous uncertainty, the difference between merely weathering the storm and harnessing its energy depends largely on how quickly you can transform chaos into clarity, and clarity into opportunity.

As published AccountingWeb - March 2025